QPR remain something of an enigma. They already have wins over the Championship’s top two over the past month but they were also hammered 4-0 in their last away game, which was in the East Midlands at Nottingham Forest. Derby too suffer from a dose of inconsistency but their overall form has been good of late and they should have the better of this.
It’s 4 wins from 6 for the Rams and they’ve again tended to enjoy life at home this season. A 57% home win ratio is a reflection of that. They are only outside the play-off places on goal difference and it’s also interesting to note that they’ve played fewer home games than every other side in the division, so there’s real reason to think Derby are capable of cementing themselves in the top six as the season progresses.
All of their home wins this season have been to nil and they’ve been tight at the back, with the exception of the occasional bad day at the office, something the Rams seem a bit too prone to. Going forward they’ve plenty of options with Matej Vydra one of their stand-out performers this term. He scored again at Fulham on Friday to move onto 7 goals for the season in the league. They’ve come at a rate of one every 104 minutes, which is a fine return and backing Vydra to score anytime looks to offer value here with QPR not great at the back.
Ian Holloway’s side have conceded 1.88 goals per away game this season. They haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 13 away league matches and are really poor travellers overall. Only Birmingham have collected fewer points on the road this term in the Championship than QPR. The problems go further back too as far as the West Londoners are concerned, with the club having failed to win any of their last 15 away fixtures.
Therefore, we don’t really have much here to suggest this game will fail to go in Derby’s favour. The Rams have fired in 12 goals in their last 5 home matches and backing Derby to score over 1.5 goals looks like the smart bet.